China and US: Manufacturing Comparison

choi

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The four reports are closely related.
(1) Regional Jets Struggle For Traction In China. Aviation Week, Apr 25, 2011.

This report is for subscribers only. It talks about regional jets. But most important, it mentions airports in China are mostly underutilized. I will go to a library tonight and make a few quotes available tomorrow.

My point is return on investment (ROI) dimishes over time even under the best of circumstances. China seems profligate and prodigal to me.

(2) George Magnus, China Risks Credit-Fuelled Minsky Moment; Reluctance to hit growth or alienate workers might lead to a premature call of victory over inflation. Financial Times, May 4, 2011.
http://gonzaloraffoinfonews.blogspot.com/2011/05/china-risks-credit-fuelled-minsky.html
("it is worth asking whether China’s investment-intensive growth model, and developments in credit and inflation, are pushing it towards its own version of a “Minsky moment” – named after the US economist who warned that the process of leverage always culminates in instability")

Note:
(a) Hyman Minsky
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyman_Minsky
(1919-1996; professor of economics at Washington University in St. Louis; section 4 Financial theory)
(b) total social financing 社会融资总量
(c) Paragraph 5 suggests that excessive credit may be the underlying, indigenous cause of inflation.


(3) Michael Forsythe and Luzi Ann Javier, In China, Factories vs. Farms; More farmland is giving way to manufacturing, and food supplies are threatened. Bloomberg BusinessWeek,
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/11_19/b4227009958677.htm

Note:
(a) Chonche Group  中车集团
http://www.zhongche.com.cn/

Somehow URL is spelled differently from the real name of the state-owned enterprise.
(b) QIAN Keming 钱克明 (中国农业科学院国产局)

(4) John Bussey, Analysis: Will Costs Drive Firms Home? Wall Street Journal, May 5, 2011.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704322804576303470987508998.html

Note:
(a) slough (n; akin to Middle High German slouche ditch)
"1a : a place of deep mud or mire
b also slew or slue \ˈslü\ (1) : swamp (2) : an inlet on a river; also : backwater (3) : a creek in a marsh or tide flat
2: a state of moral degradation or spiritual dejection"
www.m-w.com

The pronunciation and etymology of this slough is different from another noun of the same spelling buit means "something that may be shed or cast off."
(b) The report states, "Employment at manufacturing companies in the U.S. may have dropped over the last 40 years. But those companies have gotten a lot more productive, and manufacturing output has actually risen. Companies are making — in the U.S. — more than double what they did four decades ago."

Based on the same (BCG), Financial Times today has a report that carries illustrations, one of which is a historical graph showing between 1972 and 2011 (probably the 40 years referred to in the WSJ report) US manufacturing "employment" has dropped by ~60% but "output" has soared to ~240% of the 1972 level.
(c) The report purposefully cites GlobalFoudries twice, as if it is an American company. It is not--AMD owns less than 20% of teh company; the rest goes to UAE.
(d) The bar chart of the WSj report shows in2010, on average Chinese worker's productivity and comepensation are 29% and 31%, respectively, of American worker. In other words, there is little economic advantage to outsource to China.
(e) The report is based on

Press release: Made in the USA, Again: Manufacturing Is Expected to Return to America as China’s Rising Labor Costs Erase Most Savings from Offshoring. Boston Consulting Group, May 5, 2011.
http://www.bcg.com/media/PressReleaseDetails.aspx?id=tcm:12-75973
("With Chinese wages rising at about 17 percent per year and the value of the yuan continuing to increase * * * manufacturing in China will be only 10 to 15 percent cheaper than in the U.S.—even before inventory and shipping costs are considered. After those costs are factored in, the total cost advantage will drop to single digits or be erased entirely, Sirkin said")

* Victoria, Texas  
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria,_Texas
(located thirty miles inland from the Gulf of Mexico; known as "The Crossroads" because of its location within a two-hour drive of Corpus Christi, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin)
* I introduced Mr Sirkin to you in a Apr 15, 2011 posting titled "China's Inflation" in this board.
※ 修改:．choi 于 May  5 14:15:43 修改本文．[FROM: 129.10.0.0]

choi

本文通过一路BBS站telnet客户端发布

(1) The current issue (cover date: Apr 25, 2011) of Aviation Week has the cover:
(a) graphic: Five stars with red background, patterned after PRC flag--the big star and four small stars are, counterclockwise, filled with national flags of US, France, Germany, Canada and Brazil;
(b) the words: Winning in China; Partnering strategies for a mega-marget.

One of the cover stories is
Joseph C Anselmo and Michael Mecham, Thinking Small; Acceptance of regional jets will require a change in the Chinese mind-set.

Quote:

"China may be the world's second-largest aviation market, but it is still maturing and highly concentrated in the mostprosperous cities.

"More than half of the country's 175 airports do not even average four flights per day, and nearly 80% of the nation's 1,340 domestic airline routes carry fewer than 300 passengers per day each way. 'For this kind of routes, the best aircraft you can use is 100 seats or less,' Guan [Dong Yuan, president of Embraer China] says. 'Most routes are still low density.'

"Yet regional jets (RJs) remain bit players here, eons from the widespread acceptance they enjoy in the world's largest aviation market, the US. RJs account for barely 100 of the more than 1,600 aircraft operated by Chinese airlines. Most of theseare built by Brasil's Embraer, which has assembled ERJ145s in Harbin under a joint venture with Avic. Chinese carriers also operate 26 of Bombardier's regional jets, but the Canadian aircraft builder has not sold a passenger crat here in five years. The landscape will become even more crowded as Avic rolls out its own regional jet, the ARJ21.

"There are several factors underpinning the slow acceptance of RJs. Just 20 airports account for 80% of the nation's passenger traffic, and that concentration encourages the use of larger aircraft on routes such as Beijing-Shanghai, where Airbus A330 widebodies are the norm. adding hundreds of smaller aircraft would further tax air traffic control system that is straining to keep up with the rapid growth.


【 在 choi 的大作中提到: 】
: The four reports are closely related.
: (1) Regional Jets Struggle For Traction In China. Aviation Week, Apr 25, 2011.
:  
: This report is for subscribers only. It talks about regional jets. But most important, it mentions airports in China are mostly underutilized. I will
: (以下引言省略...)

--
※ 来源:．一路BBS http://yilubbs.com [FROM: 216.236.0.0]

※ 修改:．choi 于 May  5 20:39:19 修改本文．[FROM: 216.236.0.0]

※ 修改:．choi 于 May  5 20:44:35 修改本文．[FROM: 216.236.0.0]