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楼主
发表于 7-9-2011 08:26:20 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |倒序浏览 |阅读模式
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My comment:
(a) Taiwan's machine tool production and, in particular, export, has made great strides, parlaying nations's strong suit in electronics. Indeed, Taiwan banks on the industry as the next "pillar" of economic growth, after semiconductors, LCD display and photonics (LED and photovoltaics)--various specialities of electronics.
(b) For years, I know world export ranking as well as production and export values of Taiwan, based on news reports from Taiwan. Chinese are hungry for data, too. There are occasionally conflicting assertions (without datat to back them up) about quality and production/export of China's machine tools industry. News reports in US have documented Germany's booming export of machine tool to China, without financial details. However, I have failed to find statistics for other nations, including China's--until today.
(c) Lin Hui-chun and Frances Huang, Taiwan 6th-Largest Machine Tool Maker. Central News Agency, July 9, 2011
http://focustaiwan.tw/ShowNews/WebNews_Detail.aspx?Type=aALL&ID=201107090022
("output of Taiwan-made machine tools totaled US$3.8 billion (NT$109 billion) in 2010, up 67.8 percent from a year earlier. * * * Taiwan was the fourth-largest machine tool exporter, shipping US$3 billion-worth of products abroad, up 72.1 percent year-on-year.")

It has been the case for the past several years that Taiwan is the fourth place in export. What is encouraging is bound an d leap in production and export value, a trend that meshes with forecasts.
(d) One need not read the above news report, but proceed to read the primary material, on which the report is based. See next.
(e) 2011 World Machine Tool Output & Consumption Survey. Gardner Publications, Inc
http://www.gardnerweb.com/consump/survey.html
("Chinese dominance continues. China for years has been the largest consumer of machine tools, and in 2009 it became number-one producer, as well. For 2010 that leadership continues as the country makes substantial gains in shipments and increases its share to 30% of total world production. With a huge internal appetite, however, China keeps much of its output at home, and its machines are seen little in Western markets")

(i) Producer
.................................2010 Revenue (estimated) .............Change from 2009
1 China ...................19,980.0m ..........................................31%
2 Japan ..................11,841.7m ..........................................69%
3 Germany .............9,749.9m ............................................-10%
4 Italy ......................5,166.4m ............................................-1%
5 S Korea ...............4,498.0m ...........................................,63%
6 Taiwan ................3,803.3m ............................................68%
7 Switzerland .........2,185.4m ............................................1%
8 US ........................2,026.2m ............................................-9%

(ii) Exporters:
.................................$ 2010 (est) .......Change $ (y/y) .....Export (including re-export)/Production
1 Japan ..................7,832.7m............86% ........................66%
2 Germany .............6,623.6m ...........-9% .........................68%
3 Italy ......................3,298.5m............-1% .........................64%
4 Taiwan ................2,995.1m ...........72% ........................79%
5 Switzerland .........1,821.1m ...........-1% .........................83%
6 China ...................1,800.0m ...........28% ........................9%
7 S Korea ...............1,678.0m ............38% .......................37%
8 US ........................1,380.4. ..............12% .......................68%

(iii) Consumers
.................................2010 Revenue (estimated) .............Change from 2009
1 China ...................27,280.0m ..........................................38%
2 Germany .............5,033.9m .............................................-13%
3 Japan ...................4,445.3m ............................................37%
4 S Korea ...............4,264.0m .............................................59%
5 Italy .......................2,768.7m ............................................-1%
6 United States .......2,752.3m ...........................................-15%
7 India ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1,740.0m ...........................................44%
8 Taiwan ..................1,505.5m ...........................................74%

(iv) Importers
.................................$ 2010 (est) .......Change $ (y/y).....Import (including that for re-export)/Consumption
1 China ...................9,100.0m..............54% .....................33%
2 US.........................2,106.5m .............-7% ......................77%
3 Germany ..............1,907.6m .............-15% ....................38%
4 S Korea ................1,444.0m................27% ..................34%
5 India ......................1,250.0m ..............33% ...................72%
6 Russia ..................1,069.1m ...............5% .....................86%
7 Mexico ..................916.4m ..................0% .....................90%
8 Italy .......................900.8m....................1% .....................33%
9 Brazil .....................897.2m ...................0% .....................60%
10 Taiwan ...............697.3m....................105% .................46%

(v) Copuntry Report
* China: "Chinese consumption, as a percentage of total estimated world production of $71-billion, amounts to 23%. So, again, more than one out of every five machines produced in the world ends up in China. In terms of domestic production, China, which reports its production for this survey in U.S. dollars rather than yuan, increased 43%, solidifying its spot as third place in the world, ahead of the Italy and behind only Japan and Germany."

Note: The second sentence suggests that foreign production of machine tool INSIDE China catapults China into the leading producer.

* Taiwan: "The country continues to have a very high per-capita rate of consumption, and last year ranked second behind only Switzerland in that measure, with more than $165 worth of new machine tools installed for each person.

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沙发
 楼主| 发表于 7-9-2011 08:43:27 | 只看该作者

Re: Machine Tools

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James Simms, Japan's Capital Dilemma. Wall Street Journal, July 8, 2011 (title in print)
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303544604576431900104103100.html
("one message from Japanese core machinery order data for May[;] A subset of the overall data, foreign machinery orders, is actually heading south, with month-on-month declines in the past three months. That dropped 6.6% in May alone. And year-on-year increases have been slowing for the past four months too. This indicates a slowdown in overseas growth, namely in the U.S. and China, the last thing Japan needs at a time when it could do with all economic engines firing for a recovery.")

My comment: I am not concerned about Japan. US Department o Labor yesterday released employment data for June, so the writer knew when writing this report that US economic recovery was stalled. His divination about China, gleaned from this "subset" of data is intriguing. I will wait to see if this interpretation is correct.


【 在 choi 的大作中提到: 】
: My comment:
: (a) Taiwan's machine tool production and, in particular, export, has made great strides, parlaying nations's strong suit in electronics. Indeed, Taiwan banks on the industry as the next "pillar" of economic growth, after semiconductors, LCD display and photonics (LED and photovoltaics)--various spec
: (以下引言省略...)

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板凳
 楼主| 发表于 7-14-2011 10:03:54 | 只看该作者

Re: Machine Tools

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Machine tools is the fifth high-tech industry in Taiwan to have reached 兆元產值 output/revenue (in Taiwan dollar).

(1) chips
(2) liquid crystal display (LCD)
(3) The third is  light-emitting diode (LED). See
Tim Whitaker, PIDA Predicts Rapid Growth for LED Market in Taiwan. LEDs magazine, Feb 2, 2011
http://www.ledsmagazine.com/news/8/2/3
(LED lighting + LED packing + LED epi (wafer & chips) in 2008)

Note:
(a) The "epi" stands for epitaxial (adj) or epitaxy (noun).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epitaxy
(b) indium gallium nitride
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indium_gallium_nitride
(InGaN, InxGa1-xN; is a semiconductor material made of a mix of gallium nitride (GaN) and indium nitride (InN))

Both indium and gallium are in the boron group of periodic table.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Periodic_table

(4) The fourth is photovoltaics. See
Another Good Year Expected for Taiwan Photovoltaic Industry. Photonics Industry & Technology Development Association (PIDA), Feb 15, 2011.
http://www.pida.org.tw/edm/pidapost/201102/110215_web.htm
(兆元產值 also achieved in 2008)

【 在 choi 的大作中提到: 】
: My comment:
: (a) Taiwan's machine tool production and, in particular, export, has made great strides, parlaying nations's strong suit in electronics. Indeed, Taiwan banks on the industry as the next "pillar" of economic growth, after semiconductors, LCD display and photonics (LED and photovoltaics)--various spec
: (以下引言省略...)

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