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Argentina 1914 (I)

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发表于 6-26-2014 17:11:09 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Government | The Parable of Argentina; There are lessons for many governments from one country’s 100 years of decline. Economist, Feb 15, 2014.
www.economist.com/news/leaders/2 ... ars-decline-parable

Note:
(a) “In 1914 Argentina stood out as the country of the future. Its economy had grown faster than America’s over the previous four decades. Its GDP per head was higher than Germany’s, France’s or Italy’s. It boasted wonderfully fertile agricultural land, a sunny climate, a new democracy (universal male suffrage was introduced in 1912), an educated population * * * [Nowadays] Forget about competing with the Germans. The Chileans and Uruguayans, the locals Argentines used to look down on, are now richer. Children from both those countries—and Brazil and Mexico too—do better in international education tests.”
(i) The 1913 per capita GDP (according to Angus Maddison 2003): Argentina’s 3,797 v Germany’s 3,648 (1990 International Geary-Khamis dollars; both by the 2003 national boundaries).
(ii)
(A) Indeed, the first figure in the NEXT article (titled "The Wrong Trajectory; Argentina's GDP per person as % of GDP per person in Germany") showed Argentina's in 1914 was barely higher than Germany's. It is not surprising because tehe same graphic also said: "Source: Maddison Project."
(B) But see

Economy of Argentina
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Argentina
(“During its most vigorous period, from 1880 to 1905, this expansion resulted in a 7.5-fold growth in GDP, averaging about 8% annually [compared to 2% for US].[24] One important measure of development, GDP per capita, rose from 35% of the United States average to about 80% during that period.[24] Growth then slowed considerably, though throughout the period from 1890 to 1939, the country's per capita income was similar to that of France, Germany and Canada[25] (although income in Argentina remained considerably less evenly distributed).[22]“)
(C) economic history of Argentina
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina
("is one of the most studied, owing to the 'Argentine paradox' * * * By 1913, Argentina was the world's 10th wealthiest nation per capita")
(iii) I scrutinized what Argentina exported in 1914: grain and beef, all agricultural products. Argentina was not industrialized then and is not now. (In 1914--contrary to the present--there was no significant natural resources/commodities/mining in Argentina.)
(iv) “The soybean had been introduced to Brazil” in 1882. However,

“By the 1950s and 1960s, Argentina was already a major corn and wheat producer. In contrast, Argentina’s soybean sector did not emerge until the early 1970s, lagging Brazil by more than a decade.”  Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture.


(b) “Why dwell on a single national tragedy? When people consider the worst that could happen to their country, they think of totalitarianism. * * * The real danger is inadvertently becoming the Argentina of the 21st century. Slipping casually into steady decline would not be hard. Extremism is not a necessary ingredient, at least not much of it: weak institutions, nativist politicians, lazy dependence on a few assets and a persistent refusal to confront reality will do the trick.”

nativist (n): "a policy of favoring native inhabitants as opposed to immigrants"
www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/nativist

(c) “In its economy, its politics, and its reluctance to reform, Argentina’s decline has been largely self-inflicted.  Commodities, Argentina’s great strength in 1914, became a curse. A century ago the country was an early adopter of new technology—refrigeration of meat exports was the killer app of its day—but it never tried to add value to its food (even today, its cooking is based on taking the world’s best meat and burning it). The Peróns built a closed economy that protected its inefficient industries; Chile’s generals opened up in the 1970s and pulled ahead. *  * * Unlike Australia, another commodity-rich country, Argentina did not develop strong political parties determined to build and share wealth * * * Argentina’s decline has been seductively gradual. * * * Throughout its decline, the cafés of Buenos Aires have continued to serve espressos and medialunas. That makes its disease especially dangerous. * * * The lesson from the parable of Argentina is that good government matters. Perhaps it has been learned. But the chances are that in 100 years’ time the world will look back at another Argentina—a country of the future that got stuck in the past.”
(i) For medialuna (singular form), see croissant
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croissant
(section 2 Variants, section 2.1 Argentina)
(ii) Spanish English dictionary:
(A) media (noun or adjective feminine; Latin medius): “half”
(B) luna (noun feminine; Latin lūna): “moon”

A halfmoon is usually crescent-shaped.

(d) There is no need to read the rest.
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