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易思安:解放军噩梦是同时应对台美印

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发表于 1-7-2019 16:45:13 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
钟辰芳, 易思安:解放军噩梦是同时以五大联合作战应对台湾美国及印度. VOA Chinese, Jan 7, 2019
https://www.voachinese.com/a/chi ... 190107/4732675.html

two consecutive paragraphs:

"目前是美国2049项目研究所研究员的易思安(Ian Easton),星期天发表了 '中国五大战争计划' 的最新报告,进一步分析解放军如何以台湾这个 '大型岛屿' 为目标进行作战准备,以联合作战行动达到 '孤立或占领台湾、阻止美国介入,并抗击一旦对台动武时可能面临的来自印度的边境威胁。'

"这五大主要联合作战计划,包括 '大型岛屿联合火力突击作战、' '大型岛屿联合封锁作战、' '大型岛屿联合进攻作战、' '联合反空袭作战,' 以及'边境地区联合作战。'

My comment:
(a) This report is based on Ian Easton, China's Top Five War Plans. Project 2049 Institute, Jan 6, 2019.
https://project2049.net/2019/01/06/chinas-top-five-war-plans/
("PLA sources indicate that Chinese military strategists focus on five major conflicts scenarios [at page 1]. * * * The following will briefly outline how Chinese military writings envision the manner in which each of the PLA's five joint operations ['联合作战' where 'joint' means coordination between different 'service or branch of the military': page 2] might, in theory, play out. [the first scenario:] Joint Firepower Strike Operations against Taiwan[:] In this scenario, the PLA would employ missile and air strike against Taiwan with the aim of suppressing and destroying targets on the island [at page 3]")

These five scenarios are what Mr Easton gleans from PLA's internal documents; PLA itself does not say so.
(b) Regarding the nightmare scenario (quotation this VOA report: 噩梦假想情况) in Easton's article. India is unlikely to intervene. United States is iffy. As for the quotation in (a): It is unthinkable for China to conduct air strike, because there are so many missiles on each side.
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