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钟辰芳, 台湾被解放军攻克后会如何？美记者论严重后果. VOA Chinese, Jan 23, 2019
https://www.voachinese.com/a/pos ... 190122/4754480.html
("新闻评论人士、前美国《防务新闻》周刊驻亚洲记者站主任颜文德(Wendell Minnick)星期一在美国《国家利益》网站上发表的文章 * * * 文章说，中国视日本、台湾及菲律宾为一面长墙，这也是为什么美国防务专家伯纳德·科尔(Bernard Cole)会把这面长墙称为 '海上长城' (The Great Wall at Sea) ")
, which is based on
Wendell Minnick, Post–Invasion Nightmare: Taiwan Becomes America's Enemy. National Interest, Jan 21, 2019.
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/post–invasion-nightmare-taiwan-becomes-america’s-enemy-41957
Note:
(a) There are quite a few of Bernard Coles in the Web with nickname Bud. This one is Captain Bernard D Cole. Annapolis, Maryland: US Naval Institute, undated
https://www.usni.org/author/captain-bernard-cole
("USN (Ret[ired]), teaches at the National War College in Washington, DC. [He writes books] * * * He earned a PhD in history from Auburn University and lives in Alexandria, VA")
(b) "If Taiwan fell tomorrow, the Chinese navy could use the northeast naval base of Suao 宜蘭縣蘇澳鎭 ['Su'ao Port, a multi-function seaport that also houses a naval base': en.wikpedia.org] as a submarine base. Not just any ordinary base, but a far better one than Yulin Naval Base on Hainan Island, where Chinese nuclear submarines leave their mountain cave facilities to enter the shallow waters of the South China Sea. At Suao the waters off the coast drop into the abyss, giving submarines a far better ability to drop below thermal layers and vanish. * * * [Suao is home port of] 168th Flotilla 168艦隊 [also known as Flotilla 168; commanded by 168艦隊部]"
(i) Yulin Naval Base 榆林海军基地 "is roughly 50 nautical miles (93 km) from the base to the 200 meter isobath." en.wikpedia.org for the Base.
(A) If one views the isobaths of South China Sea, he will appreciate that the periphery of that Sea is shallow, but that once reaching the 200m isobath in all directions, the Sea drops precipitously to 2,000m. True that a Chinese submarine may be tracked easily for 50 nautical miles (even destroyed in the distance), but once the sub makes it * * * .
In contrast, the entire east coast of Taiwan falls immediately to below 200m (whether it is due to Kuroshio 黑潮, I do not know). That is to say, there is no continental shelf in east coast.
(B) 位于海南省三亚市榆林港
(ii) isobath 等深线 (n; International Scientific Vocabulary is- + -bath (from [Ancient] Greek [noun neuter] bathos depth) )
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/isobath
"In cartography, a contour line (often just called a 'contour') joins points of equal elevation (height) above a given level, such as mean sea level." en.wikipedia.org for "contour line 等高线."
(iii) thermocline and anti-submarine warfare (ASW) -- there is no need to understand thermocline in detail, because ASW has developed countermeasures against it and many other measures to evade ASW. The most important is (D) and (E) below.
(A) What is thermocline?
* thermocline
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermocline
("also known as * * * the metalimnion in lakes [this is repeated in the Wiki page for 'lake stratification']")
View graphics only. Thermocline is the layer of water where temperatures drops quickly: in graphics 2 and 3, x-axis is temperature and y-axis depth. Graphic 3 shows difference on surface layer of water in summer and winter.
* thermocline (n): "1897, from thermo- + -cline, from Greek klinein to slope"
https://www.etymonline.com/word/thermocline
(B) Introduction to sonar. United States Bureau of Naval Personnel, at page 49 (naval training course; NAVPERS 10130-B)
https://books.google.com/books?i ... mocline&f=false
("Layer Effect[(sectional heading):] Layer effect is the partial protection from echo ranging and listening detection a submarine gains when it submerges below layer depth. Sometimes a submarine, diving through a sharp thermocline while taking evasive action loses the screw noises of the enemy ASW ship. Although usually the pinging can still be heard, it is as a low intensity signal. On the ASW ship, ranges on submarines are reduced greatly when the submarine dives below a sharp thermocline. Often, the echoes received are weak and mushy. Shallow Water Effect [sectional heading; Figure 4-20]")
(C) Robert Derencin, Counter Sonar measures - A Bathythermograph. June 24, 2002
https://uboat.net/articles/45.html
("Negative refraction: during the summer * * * Positive refraction: during the winter")
(D) Pete, China's Current SSBNs Limited -- Thermoclines Little Help. Part Two. Submarine Matters, Aug 3, 2016
http://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2 ... -ssbns-limited.html
("THERMOCLINES NO COVER[:] People sometimes think that if a submarine dives deep enough it can take advantage of major change in water temperature (thermocline) by sitting safely below the layer. This would be correct and comforting to the submarine commander of the sensor threat were only on the surface. Problem occur for the SSBN if the enemy cam deploy gadgets that can get TO (or are below) the sub's protective thermocline layer. These gadgets-tactics include:
1. an ASW surface ship's towed sonar array which is most likely set deep (say 300 or 400m sonar).
2. long dipping sonars from helicopters that can suddenly appear. Like towed sonars, dipping sonars may well [be] 'active' -- hence able ptp] bounce off the hull and detect even subs that are hardly moving. As SSBN switching its reactor to silent mode, while using battery powered thrusters, will not totally hide it from active sonar.
3 sonobuoys dropped in a pattern, in front of the sub's likely path and set to reach the same depth as the sub
4. seafloor arrays or tethered sensor arrays can be usefully laid for long term use in restrictive waters * * * ")
(E) Press release: Navy Accepts Final Component for LCS Anti-Submarine Warfare Mission Package. Program Executive Office Unmanned and Small Combatants (PEO USC) Public Affairs, US Navy, Dec 6, 2018 (Story Number: NNS181206-07)
https://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=107995
The first two paragraphs:
"FORT PIERCE, Fla (NNS) -- The Navy took delivery of the final component of the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) Mission Package, Nov 30, following successful completion of a rigorous acceptance test regime at the Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institute.
"The Raytheon-developed, Dual-mode Array Transmitter (DART) Mission System and ASW Mission Package will significantly increase ASW capabilities within the US Navy, bringing the ability to maneuver active and passive sonars above and below the thermocline layer.
* There is no need to read the rest. |
发表于 1-23-2019 17:28:39
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