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China and US (Population, GDP per Capita)

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发表于 11-16-2019 11:08:41 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
沃尔夫, 美国该如何应对中国崛起; 美国应该承认,人类要实现经济进步、维持和平、保护好全球公域,超级大国之间必须维持高水平的合作. 金融时报, Nov 15, 2019
https://www.ftchinese.com/story/001085164

, which is translated from

Martin Wolf, How the US Should Deal with China; Along with its allies, Washington needs to confront, compete and co-operate across multiple domains. Financial Times, Nov 13, 2019.

Quote:

"The US is the most powerful high-income country because it has the biggest population [329m], by far. But the population of China [1.385b] is to the US's, roughly what America's is to Germany's [population 80.5m]. Nobody could now imagine a world in which Germany's economy [GDP $3.701t] is comparable in size to that of the US. Similarly, why should we imagine that the US will remain indefinitely comparable in size to that of China?  There can only be one answer to this question.  US output per head [GDP per capita] will remain far higher than China's permanently. At market prices [foreign exchange rate, hence nominal GDP per capita], China's gross GDP per head [GDP $12.01t] in 2018 was just 15 per cent of US levels [$59,800 (2017); GDP (2017) $19.49t]. That is very close to Turkey's [population 82m; GDP $851.5b] (and ranks 72nd in the world. Imagine, however, that China achieves Spain's output per head [population 49m; GDP $1.314t], relative to the US. Its economy would then be twice the size of that of the US, at market prices (and close to three times as big in terms of purchasing power).  Is it plausible that China will, over the next three decades, achieve a GDP per head relative to the US comparable to that of Spain today? Of course it is. Does anyone doubt that the Chinese people are capable of this? But what is plausible is not inevitable.

"Brezhnev closed down all thoughts of economic and political reform in the Soviet Union from 1964 to his death in 1982. He emphasised communist orthodoxy and party discipline. The result proves a disaster for the USSR. His conservatism bore direct responsibility for the subsequent collapse. It is conceivable that Mr Xi's re-establishment of party discipline and the role of the state in economic life will have similar consequences for China. But what is conceivable is not inevitable. China also has a vigorous economy and a studious bureaucracy. It may avoid that trap.

Note:
(a) The Chinese translation is from full text, not a mere summary. But English-language print has just three panels of graphic:
* China exports far more to US allies than to the US
* The US and its allies still do much more trade than China
* China is a very important market for some US allies
(b) Ab economics columnist of Financial Times, Martin Wolf is renowned. But I do not think he is wonderful -- nobody is. He has a bachelor's degree, not PhD.
(c) I read the English original in print, but think the rest of the column is ordinary, So read my quotations only.
(d) In quotation 1 above, al inserted figures are from CIA World Factbook (current edition), whose population figures are July 2017 estimates and whose total (nominal) GDP (foreign exchange rate) figures are 2017 estimates.
(e) list of countries by GDP (nominal) per capita
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita
(World Bank 2018: US $62,641, Germany $48,196, Spain $30,524, China $9,711, Turkey $9,311)
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