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US Growth Seen Outpacing China's for First Time Since 1976

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发表于 5-26-2022 13:07:59 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Tom Hancock and Chris Anstey, US Growth Seen Outpacing China's for First Time Since 1976. Bloomberg Business, May 20, 2022
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/a ... rst-time-since-1976
("The world’s second-largest economy will grow just 2% this year, Bloomberg Economics wrote in a report Thursday [May 19, 2022]. By comparison, US gross domestic product will increase 2.8% this year, Bloomberg Economics predicts. * * * The Bloomberg Economics call is on the bearish end of the spectrum, with the median forecast for China's 2022 GDP growth still over 4%. If they [Bloonberg economists] have it right, this year would be the first time that China's full-year growth pace has lagged behind that of its rival since 1976, when China was emerging from the tumultuous decade of the Cultural Revolution")

Note:
(a) A bar chjart shows China's GDP per capita was $12,359 ("Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook database April 2022[.]  Note: per-capita GDP in current-dollar terms").
(i) World Economic Outlook Database, April 2022. International Monetary Fund, undated.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2022/April

The choices in the menu to prepare a customized report for "GDP per capita" includes

constant prices (national currency)
constant prices (purchasing power parity; 2017 internaitnal dollars)
current prices (national currency)
current prices (US dollars)
(ii) international dollar
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_dollar
("also known as Geary–Khamis dollar * * * is a hypothetical unit of currency that has the same purchasing power parity that the US dollar had in the United States at a given point in time")

For China, "constant prices (purchasing power parity; 2017 internaitnal dollars)" today is 17,531.136. That was in 2017 dollars, which, if expressed in 2022 dollars, will be a bit bigger (thanks to mild inflation between 2015 and 2022).
(b) "Stephen Jen, who runs hedge fund and advisory firm Eurizon SLJ Capital" in London.

Stephen Li Jen. tradetechFX, undated
https://tradetechfx.wbresearch.com/speakers/stephen-li-jen
("Stephen is CEO and Co-CIO of Eurizon SLJ, which he co-founded together with Fatih Yilmaz in 2011. From 1996 to 2009 Stephen was managing director at Morgan Stanley, where he held various roles, including global head of currency research. Prior to Morgan Stanley, Stephen had spent four years as an economist with the IMF, covering economies in Eastern Europe and Asia. Stephen holds a BSc degree in Electrical Engineering from the University of California at Irvine (Summa Cum Laude) [1984-1988] and a PhD in Economics from MIT [1988-1992]. Stephen is a fluent Mandarin speaker")

His LinkedIn page says he was Senior Economist, IMF, at Washington DC (1992 - 1996); Managing Director, Morgan Stanley (1996-2009). His Chinese name is 任永利.
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