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中国航母动作频频 美中走向吊诡的 'M型新冷战模式'

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发表于 6-8-2022 10:24:15 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
陈筠, 中国航母动作频频 美中走向吊诡的 'M型新冷战模式.' VOA Chinese, June 8, 2022
https://www.voachinese.com/a/the ... 060722/6606523.html

Note:
(a) "分析人士表示,美中关系进入一种前所未有的“M型新冷战模式”,M的一端是两方都为全面军事对抗在做准备,M的另外一端是两方也都想尽办法压下这场大型战争,美中关系在M的两个端点间不断摆荡,紧张关系将成为新常态。"
(i) "M型新冷战模式"

I search the entire Web and this term appears only once: in this article and nowhere else; apparently the author coins this (Chinese) term. Naturally there is no English translation.
(ii) "M型"?
(A) The article explains: "美中关系在M的两个端点间不断摆荡,紧张关系将成为新常态."

Therefore this is the definition of M型, by the author himself.
(B) The concept is not new, in a sense.
• Kurt M Campbell and Jake Sullivan, Competition Without Catastrophe; How America can both challenge and coexist with China. Foreign Affairs, September/October 2019 (locked behind paywall).
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/a ... without-catastrophe
• Christopher J Bolan and Joel R Hillison, Managing the Twin Challenges of Competition and Cooperation. Modern War Institute (MWI), US Military Academy (West Point), Apr 19, 2022
https://mwi.usma.edu/managing-th ... on-and-cooperation/
, which says nothing important.

(b) "中国第二艘航母、也是中国自制的第一艘航母山东舰,则在前几天被发现甲板上出现无人机群。美国军事网站《动力》(The Drive)6月2日报道指出,那些无人机看似有两款,一款是大鹏CW-20无人机,另一款是翔翼CSC-005无人机。  报道说,山东舰上的无人机不像是具有高端性能的无人机。解放军海军有可能将这些无人机做为抗衡越来越大的小型无人机的训练和测试。"

Joseph Trevithick, Chinese Aircraft Carrier Seen with a fleet of Drones on Its Deck; Imagery shows the Chinese aircraft carrier Shandong working as a deployment platform for vertical takeoff and landing drones. The Drive, June 2 2022
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war ... t-of-drones-onboard
(:mages have emerged online that appear to show multiple examples of at least two different types of commercial or commercial-derivative drones with vertical takeoff and landing capability on the deck of the Chinese aircraft carrier Shandong. * * * The images were posted recently on the Chinese microblogging website Weibo, but it's unclear when they were taken. At least one, which actually shows a drone in flight, has a CCTV-7 watermark, indicating that it is a frame from a segment that aired on that television network. China Central Television's (CCTV) channel seven is devoted to People's Liberation Army (PLA) related programming")

There is no need to read this report (beyond the quotation above. When I read the this report in VOA Chinese and the title in The Drive, I thought The "vertical takeoff and landing" (VTOL) is based on America's either Bell Boeing V-22 Osprey or F-35C. However, the video clip (title: "JOUAV CW-20 HD Video") in this The Drive article shows primitive quadrotor AV (aerial vehicle) made by Chengdu Jouav Automation Technology Co 成都纵横自动化技术股份有限公司 (established in 2010; UAV stands for unmanned aerial vehicle -- I do not know what JO stands for).

(c) "据了解,中国新航母的排水量为8万多吨,辽宁舰和山东舰的排水量约为6万多吨。 * * * 台湾军方智库、国防安全研究院中共政军与作战概念研究所副研究员舒孝煌 * * * 表示,虽然003航母使用电磁弹射系统,但它仍采用传统动力,不论是用燃气涡轮或是蒸汽涡轮来产生动力,都会有相当耗油的问题,因此003航母打击群在向外投送武力的时候,将不可避免地在它背后需要维持一条很长的补给线。  舒孝煌以辽宁舰过去在西太平洋演训10天的情况推算, 辽宁舰在中途有换过一艘油船,代表辽宁舰大概7天就需要换一艘油弹补给舰;但003比辽宁舰更大,消耗的燃油更多,尤其若要维持电磁弹射系统的运作,它的主机必须全时开机,再加上003舰载机的数量又比辽宁舰更多,所以燃油消耗也更大,这将是003航母未来的作战挑战之一。"
(i) 燃气涡轮  gas turbine
蒸汽涡轮  steam turbine
(ii) Both turbines will explored further in a follow-up posting.

(d) "中国航母近来动作频频,在辽宁号航母完成远海编队训练后,山东号航母被发现甲板上有无人机群,而第3艘003型航母近来则传出离下水不远了。与此同时,中国智库的一份报告指出,美中全面 '摊牌' 的概率正在上升,包括大型军事对抗。 * * * 中国智库、人民大学重阳金融研究院五月底一份题为 '俄乌冲突以来,美国对华政策的进展评估与中国应对' 的报告指出,俄乌冲突加剧了美国对中国的战略焦虑,美国开始加速布局全面对中 '大围剿。' 未来美中博弈呈现三种可能性,分别是走向全面军事对抗的高烈度博弈,走向美中全面脱钩的中烈度博弈,以及美中紧张关系成为常态的低烈度博弈。该报告建议中国政府应放弃幻想,全力防范高烈度军事对抗的最后摊牌可能性。"

毛振业, 《大围剿:俄乌冲突以来美国对华政策的进展评估与中国应对》研究报告发布. 观察者网, May 30, 2022.
https://www.guancha.cn/internation/2022_05_30_642041.shtml

2022年5月30日,由中国人民大学重阳金融研究院(人大重阳)主办、中国人民大学中俄人文交流中心与中美人文交流研究中心承办、观察者网共同主办的中美论坛(2022年春季)在线举行。此次会议就“俄乌冲突以来,美国对华全面竞争战略评估及应对”为主题进行研讨,并发布《大围剿:俄乌冲突以来,美国对华政策的进展评估与中国应对》研究报告。多位知名专家学者、行业领军人物共同参会进行研讨。




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