'The Taiwan Test'

choi

The May 3, 2025 issue of The Economist had the cover: a Taiwan flag between two cylinders -- the top one with a smaller diameter than the bottom one (I have not been able to discern what cylinders stand for).

choi

(1) Leaders | The Taiwan Test; An opportunity is opening for China to call America's bluff. (in the column of Leaders, which, generally speaking, is a lede to important article(s) of that issue).
("In 2024 Mr Trump said that if China tried to invade Taiwan he would impose tariffs: 'I'm going to tax you, at 150% to 200%.' Today tariffs are at 145%. America has shot its bolt. The trade war is about who can take the most pain and that is a fight China will fancy it can win")

Note:
(a)
(i)
(A) bolt
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolt
(may refer to: "crossbow bolt, ammunition used in a crossbow")  Click to see photo only.
(B) have shot your bolt (idiom): "UK informal  to have already achieved all that you have the power, ability, or strength to do and to be unable to do more"
https://dictionary.cambridge.org ... lish/have-shot-bolt
(ii)
(A) crossbow
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossbow

Quote:

• Crossbow has "a main frame [which can be held vertically or horizontally] called a tiller, which is hand-held in a similar fashion to the stock of a long gun. * * *

• "Crossbows and bows use the same elastic launch principles, but differ in that an archer using a bow must draw-and-shoot in a quick and smooth motion with limited or no time for aiming, while a crossbow's design allows it to be spanned and cocked ready for use at a later time and thus affording them unlimited time to aim. When shooting bows, the archer must fully perform the draw, holding the string and arrow using various techniques while pulling it back with arm and back muscles, and then either immediately shooting instinctively without a period of aiming, or holding that form while aiming. Both demand some physical strength to do so using bows suitable for warfare, though this is easier using lighter draw-weight hunting bows. As such, their accurate and sustained use in warfare takes much practice.

"Crossbows avoid these potential problems by having trigger-released cocking mechanisms to maintain the tension on the string once it has been spanned – drawn – into its ready-to-shoot position, allowing these weapons to be carried cocked and ready and affording their users time to aim them. This also allows them to be readied by someone assisting their users, so multiple crossbows can be used one after the other while others reload and ready them. Crossbows are spanned into their cocked positions using a number of techniques and devices, some of which are mechanical and employ gear and pulley arrangements – levers, belt hooks, pulleys, windlasses and cranequins – to overcome very high draw weight.[2] These potentially achieve better precision and enable their effective use by less familiarised and trained personnel, whereas the simple and composite warbows of, for example, the English and the steppe nomads require years of training, practice and familiarisation.

"These advantages for the crossbow are somewhat offset by the longer time needed to reload a crossbow for further shots * * *

• "The earliest known crossbows were invented in ancient China in the first millennium BC and brought about a major shift in the role of projectile weaponry in wars, especially during Qin's unification wars and later the Han campaigns against northern nomads and western states.

• "Arrow, bolt and quarrel are all suitable terms[1] for crossbow projectiles * * *

(B) history of crossbows
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_crossbows
At least view the top photo.
(C) 弩
https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hant/弩
(b) English dictionary:
* fancy (vt):
"3 a: to believe mistakenly or without evidence
    b: to believe without being certain  <she fancied she had met him before>"
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/fancy

choi

(2) Briefing[:] Taiwan, China and America | A Darker Shade of Grey Zone; Chinese military exercises a blockade of Taiwan.

Quote:

(a) Few doubt, however, that China will keep squeezing Taiwan through 'grey zone' aggression, meaning coercion short of war. * * *

(b) three consecutive paragraphs on the scenario of a blockade on Taiwan:

"The most serious vulnerability is energy. The island imported about 96% of its energy last year, including virtually all liquefied natural gas, which accounted for about 42% of electricity generation. Taiwan is increasing storage capacity, boosting renewables and laying plans to ration energy and restart old coal-fired stations in an emergency. Even so, minimum LNG stocks will increase from 11 days of consumption this year to just 14 days by 2027. The government is phasing out its last nuclear power plant this year * * *

"As for food, Taiwan imported about 70% of the calories its people ate in 2023, but is largely self-sufficient in rice, vegetables, fruit and seafood. It has stockpiled about seven months’ worth of rice and 12 months of meat. * * *

"Taiwan is also preparing for an information blockade [ie, access to the Web, which is now mainly through undersea cables]. * * *

(c) "Japan and the Philippines thinks that preserving Taiwan's autonomy is vital to their own security. American officials have discussed mustering convoys to break any blockade. China worries about counter-blockade [eg, in Indian Ocean cutting oil supply to China] and has also stockpiled essential supplies. * * *  

Note: The adjective/ noun gray is American English, whereas grey is British English (according to Cambridge dictionary), both descending from Old English græg. Even so, in US, it is more common to use greyhound than grayhound.

choi

(3) Cognitive Warfare | Hoping for Despair; Can China sap a divided and isolated Taiwan of its will to resist?
("ONE OF THE Communist Party’s great victories in the Chinese civil war was its takeover of Beijing, then called Peiping, in 1949. After a month-long siege, the local Nationalist commander surrendered the city without a fight. Among party cadres 'the Peiping model' has become code for a bloodless Chinese takeover of Taiwan.. Chinese state media have invoked the Peiping model to explain military exercises to prepare for a future blockade of Taiwan.   To induce a Taiwanese surrender, China would not only have to besiege Taiwan, but to convince its people that resistance was futile")

Note: cognitive warfare  认知作战: "Psychological warfare affects soldiers’ psychology, while cognitive warfare targets the cognition of an entire population." from the Web.

(4) Blockades and Quarantines | Trade Raids; Any Chinese curbs on Taiwan's trade would carry big economic costs.

Note:
(a) "Mainlanders razed the main Dutch stronghold on the island. Fort Zeelandia, in 1662 and expelled the troublesome merchants. That did not stop the British demanding that nearby Kaohsiung be opened to European ships some 200 years later."
(i) Dutch Formosa  荷屬福爾摩沙
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_Formosa
(1624–1668)
View map only:
(A) Fort Santo Domingo  紅毛城
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Santo_Domingo
("was originally a wooden fort built in 1628 by the Manila-based Spanish East Indies * * * rival Dutch East India Company (VOC) * * * found out and later invaded in 1641 and won by the Second Battle of San Salvador in 1642. After the battle, the Dutch rebuilt a fort in the original site in 1644 and renamed it in Dutch: Fort Antonio, after Antonio van Diemen, the then Governor-General of the Dutch East India Company (VOC). Since the Dutch were called in Taiwanese Hokkien Chinese: 紅毛 * * * lit. 'Red-haired (people)') by the Han Chinese immigrants during the time, the fort was then nicknamed in Taiwanese Hokkien Chinese: 紅毛城")
(B) Kingdom of Middag (capital Dadu 大肚)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_Middag
(section 1 Names: "The Kingdom of Middag is a western name" bestowed by the Dutch)
• I fail to find out why the Dutch conferred such a name.
• Dutch-English dictionary:
* middag (noun masculine; from mid- +‎ [noun masculine] dag [day]): "midday, noon"
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/middag
   ^ The (Modern) English noun day came from Old English noun masculine dæġ day.
* Spaans (adjective; from [noun neuter] Spanje [Spain] +‎ [suffix] -s ): "Spanish"
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Spaans
   ^ -s (suffix): "used to form the genitive case of (strong) masculine and neuter nouns"
   https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/-s
(C) Spaans-Formosa: see above
(ii) Fort Zeelandia (Taiwan)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Zeelandia_(Taiwan)
("the current name of the site in Chinese is 安平古堡")
• Zeeland
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeeland
(Dutch name of a Ditch province, whose English name is Zealand and Latin name was Zeelandia; for the latter, see section 8 Namesakes)
• New Zealand
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand
(section 1 Etymology; "In 1642, the Dutch explorer Abel Tasman became the first European to sight and record New Zealand. In 1769 the British explorer Captain James Cook became the first European to set foot on and map New Zealand. In 1840, representatives of the United Kingdom and Māori chiefs signed the Treaty of Waitangi which paved the way for Britain's declaration of sovereignty later that year * * * no human remains, artefacts or structures can be reliably dated to earlier than the Kaharoa eruption of Mount Tarawera in around 1314 CE.[42] * * * [Originally from Taiwan, Maori might have arrived] around 1350")
(b) "There are no easy alternatives to the Taiwan Strait. One option is to sail through the Luzon Strait, between southern Taiwan and the Philippines. Shipping firms prefer the Taiwan Strait, however, as it offers some shelter from typhoons [yjamls to Central Mountain Range 中央山脈 on Taiwan, which interferes the churning of typhoons]"